The initial strength of inter-bank spot bonds was obvious. The yield of active bonds of 7-year and 10-year treasury bonds dropped by 3.5bp. The yield of active bonds of 7-year and 10-year treasury bonds fell by 3.5bp, the yield of 7-year "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 18" reported 1.725%, and the yield of 10-year "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 11" hit 1.87%, all hitting record lows. The yield of 30-year "24 Special Treasury Bond 06" dropped by 3.1bp to 2.079%, the lowest since the end of February 2005.CICC: The non-agricultural data in November supported the Fed to continue to cut interest rates. The CICC research report pointed out that after being seriously hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the United States rose sharply to 227,000 in November, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. On the whole, the labor market is still in a state of "the momentum of employment growth is weakening, but the job market itself is not weak", which will provide reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December. However, we also predict that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, because as interest rates approach the neutral level, policymakers will become more cautious. One prediction risk is the impact of Trump's immigration policy on the labor market. At present, we tend to have a moderate impact, but we also need to pay close attention to the possibility of extreme situations. Based on non-agricultural data, we believe that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again this month.The US military suspended the flight of some Osprey transport planes and informed the Japanese government. On the 9th, the US military said that it had suspended the flight of some Osprey transport planes and informed the Japanese government of the relevant situation. According to the Associated Press, the suspension of the flight was related to the plane crash that almost happened at an air base in New Mexico on November 20th.
Galaxy Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the fields of pig breeding and broiler breeding. The Galaxy Securities Research Report pointed out that: 1. Pig breeding: the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding has expanded. Based on the function value of fertile sows and MSY framework, the operation judgment of pig price in 2024 was basically verified. With regard to the trend of pig price in 2025, the annual average price runs relatively smoothly, and the difference lies in the continuous optimization of the total cost of excellent pig enterprises, which brings more than expected breeding profits. In addition, the impact point of the pig price in 2025 lies in the impact of the current winter climate change on the epidemic situation, which needs to be continuously tracked. It is suggested to pay attention to pig enterprises with leading/continuous improvement in cost control industry, relatively healthy funds and reasonable valuation. 2. Broiler breeding: 1) Yellow feather chicken: Many factors, such as low production capacity, may push up the price of yellow chicken, and the cost advantage of the head enterprise will be superimposed on the price to improve, and the profit elasticity has an advantage. It is recommended to pay attention to Lihua shares. 2) White feather chicken: In early December, avian influenza broke out in Oklahoma and New Zealand. New Zealand has announced that it will stop exporting poultry products; The introduction of Oklahoma, the only introduction state in the United States, is expected to be blocked. According to Boya Hexun, the domestic Anweijie poultry farm has received a notice of suspension of introduction; In other respects, the amount of seeds available in France and the reopening time of other States in the United States are still uncertain. If the production capacity of ancestral white chickens in China is reduced or the introduction is stopped due to the influence of overseas avian influenza, the industry boom cycle is expected to go up, and it is suggested to pay attention to the plate.In November, the annual rate of M2 money supply in Japan was 1.2%, and the previous value was 1.20%. M3 annual rate is 0.7%.Japan's M2 money stock increased by 1.2% and M3 by 0.7% in November.
CITIC Securities: Short-term home fundamentals are expected to usher in a window of policy improvement, and we can bargain and seize the opportunity of valuation repair. CITIC Securities recently reported that the situation in the light industry has been severe since 2024, but it still presents three bright spots: channel reconstruction of the personal care industry, internationalization of the tobacco industry and asset integration of the metal packaging industry. The above-mentioned opportunities for subdividing the track are expected to continue and be further strengthened in 2025. Short-term home fundamentals are expected to usher in a policy improvement window, which can be laid out on dips, seize the opportunity of valuation repair, pay attention to industry demand and policy continuity, and attach importance to reasonable valuation intervals. In 2025, the papermaking and paper packaging industries will benefit from the recovery of consumption.A new cold air comes with rain and snow to cool down, and the chill in the north aggravates the humidity and coldness in the south. Today (December 10th), a new strong cold air comes, and most parts of China will experience obvious cooling. The number of areas in the north that are below freezing point all day is increasing, and the chill is aggravated. The highest temperature in many places in the south will drop to single digits, accompanied by rainy, wet and cold feeling. At the same time, the range of rain and snow in China is still relatively wide today. The snowfall in the north will gradually decrease tomorrow and the rain in the south will continue and will gradually press south.The financing balance of the two cities increased by 3.489 billion yuan. As of December 9, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 951.454 billion yuan, an increase of 223 million yuan over the previous trading day; The financing balance of Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 901.246 billion yuan, an increase of 3.266 billion yuan over the previous trading day; The two cities totaled 1,852.70 billion yuan, an increase of 3.489 billion yuan over the previous trading day.
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide
12-13